All right let me first say I’m not an expert when it comes to picking games in the tournament, I only play one on TV. That said if you look back at history and do your research you can always give yourself a fighting chance against the so called “office experts” and the equally dangerous office secretaries who don’t know a thing about college ball. So with that said here are some favourites, some sleepers, a couple interesting stats to consider and finally some off base/no reason why insights to the 2008 NCAA Tournament.

(1) Don’t listen to anyone who says that all the #1 seeds will make the Final Four. Since the tournament went to 64 teams the number of #1 seeds that survived that far works out to 1.7 per year.

(2) Crazy stat #1 that I ripped off from ESPN:
“No. 11 seeds that score at least 73 points a game and beat their opponents by seven or more points are 21-18.”
One team that fits that bill is Kansas State.
If Michael Beasley gets hot he could easily lead K-State into the Sweet 16. Remember they would most likely take on Wisconsin in the 2nd round, a great defensive team but they do have their troubles dealing with teams who can shoot from the outside. I wouldn’t put it past the realm of possibility if we saw Beasley light them up for 30+ and carry the Wildcats to the Sweet 16.

(3) I don’t like Stanford to go far. I haven’t been impressed by their play at point guard all year. Mitch Johnson has looked shaky every time I saw him play.
They’ll most likely face Marquette in the second round, who I like to make it to the Elite Eight before losing to Texas.
Finally their coach, Trent Johnson, has one tournament game under his belt; a 20 point beat down by Louisville last year. Ouch! Not exactly the guy you want trying to come up with half-time adjustments plus without a smart a point guard the entire coaching staff will be exposed.

(4) North Carolina is the #1 team in the entire tournament but don’t look for them to win it all. The Tar Heels have the toughest bracket with Tennessee, Louisville and Indiana in their bracket. I see them getting to the finals but will be completely spent when they have to face …. I’ll get to that at the end.

(5) Now that said about Indiana, I’m not one of those people who believes they are a legit/dangerous dark horse team. They have lost three of their past four games including losses to two teams, Penn State and Minnesota, who didn’t even qualify for the tournament. Throw in the mess that is their coaching situation and I have a hard time seeing them get past the first round.

(6) Don’t be a hero and pick a seed lower than 12 to win a game. The odds are slim and no one believes you knew anything about Winthrop’s guard play anyway.
This goes to the second crazy stat that I stole from ESPN:
“Long shots are 43-360 (.107) against opponents with a seed position at least four rungs higher than them.”

(7) Davidson is a sexy sleeper pick and for good reason. They’ve won 22 games in a row and 19 of those were by 10 points or more. 6-foot-3 guard Stephen Curry, son of former Raptor Dell Curry has the kind of talent that can carry a team past a more talented opponent.
I love the fact that their point guard, Jason Richards is a senior. Experienced play at the point can easily help mask a team’s deficiencies. Yes they play in an inferior conference but they lost close games to Duke and North Carolina with Richards going for 13 PPG / 9.5 APG in those contests.

(8) A good “hot” team is Pittsburgh who joins the ‘06 Syracuse Orangemen as the only teams in Big East tournament history to win four games in four nights. Plus the team is getting fully healthy for the first time all year.

(9) With all that said … Look for the well balanced UCLA Bruins to win it all this year.

Why …

(a) They have the easiest route to the finals, does anyone really think Duke (Bad interior D), Memphis (339th out of 341 Division I schools in foul shooting) will offer much competition?

(b) I don’t trust D.J. Augustin to have much left in the tank when they face off with UCLA in the Final Four.

(c) Speaking of that game, UCLA will be looking for revenge after losing to Texas 63-61 back in December.

(d) With Kevin Love, Darren Collison and Josh Shipp they can beat you offensively in so many different ways.

(e) They are 7-1 against ranked teams.

(f) Find me a team with more tournament experience than UCLA. They’ve been to the finals the last two years in a row and will break through against North Carolina 88-74.

All hail the Madness!

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